The Market for Takes
What is your take on it?
What a weird phrase. "Take" is a noun. You can have a good take, a bad take, a funny take, etc. But also, what is your take, it should be yours, unique and interesting. "Interesting" is a codeword for entertaining.
In real life, we are used to this cycle:
- Something happens (e.g. there is an accident in the street)
- You have a reaction and sometimes even think about it
- And you say or do something about it
And we think that Twitter takes come about in the same way... but they don't. In social media the cycle is different.
Twitter readers are demanding takes:
- They want to be entertained
- They want their worldview to be confirmed
- They want something interesting to tell their friends later
Twitter influencers are supplying them with takes:
- Something happens, the Current Thing
- Everybody else has a visceral reaction, they get certain vibes from it.
- The influencer senses their vibes, maybe feels them too
- They craft an entertaining take to amplify the audience's vibes. They say "yes, you are right, that's how you should feel about this".
- Sometimes, influencers extend their worldview in that direction. "You are more right that you imagined, look at this!"
The consumers pay for the takes with likes, retweets, and attention. The influencers profit from their attention, either emotionally, with status, financially, etc.
The market for takes clears very quickly:
- The Current Thing appears, takes are exchanged for likes and retweets
- Everybody gets their vibes confirmed, amplified, extended.
- People grow bored of today's Current Thing
- A new Current Thing appears
How is everybody is suddenly an expert on ...
So, far, I've said nothing new. But here are a few conclusions from this framing that make me more careful about Twitter:
We can handle the truth, we just don't want it. We are on Twitter to get our be proven right and entertained. And that is what we will get. As such, most takes will be decorrelated from the truth of the matter.
A fixed-point for vibes. Some people have such thick identities that they need to have their worldview and constantly vibes confirmed. No matter what happened, tankies want to be offended and conclude that "capitalism is bad". Reactionaries want to blame it on "the decline of society". Influencers in these sub markets are like Costco, dealing a smaller selection but in larger volume. Much of the people you interact with are like this.
The takes-cycle. Once we are playing the takes game, anything can start the takes cycle. Life is simply an excuse for influencers to start another wave and ride it. Everything that happens is the biggest news ever. It is so over. We are so back. Repeat. Worse, all influencers have the same incentive: every piece of news drives the take cycle and helps them get attention.
One internet under Twitter, with content and takes for all. Twitter now disallows linking to other sites. The rest of the internet is also socially constructed but at least some of it wasn't made for Twitter. Now, everything you see is made and embedded in the take economy.
What is your take on their take? We don't even need the real world or external links to continue the takes-cycle. I can just have my take on your take. And you can then react to my reaction. And we can keep going for a long time. At that point, Twitter becomes a closed system where its internal dynamics play out over time. Like with the rock, paper, scissors simulation, we can press play and watch it unfold.
A market for lemons. Influencers that chase the Current Thing are more likely to go viral, which gives them more followers, which helps them get more followers later. In that way, Twitter compounds. But also, over time most content you see is somebody supplying you with a synthetic take.
Influencers influence you. Even when you understand all the mechanics involved, the takes still influence you. You also have visceral reactions, you also want them confirmed. As soon as you see some takes, you'll consume them and probably integrate them into your worldview. I think of this the way I think of flattery: flattery works even when you know you are being flattered.
A career in influencing. Once you see through this mechanism, now you start thinking in takes. What should my take be? Your first reaction to the world becomes reflexive. Not only that, it affects your overall outlook on life.
Thank you to John Loeber for conversations on the topic, reading drafts, and contributing ideas.